The Critical Path /
eMail Newsletter
Provocative Musings for the Irreverent
Product DeveloperIssue
6.3 / April 29, 2004
Contents:
-
Why I Hate Moore's Law
<read>
- HyperLinks:
Because They Can <read>
- Top Ten Signs
Your New Boss Was a Reality TV Producer <read>
- MRT NewsBriefs
<read>
- Calendar of Events
<read>
Why I
Hate Moore's Law
Most of you are probably familiar with Moore’s law as the principle
that computer processing power (or, specifically, transistor
capacity on a chip), doubles approximately every 18 months. But did
you know that most experts estimate that silicon’s physical
limitation
will hit the wall somewhere around 2018? Innovations will
probably allow further advancements in traditional computers beyond
this end date, but most predict true evolution of computing power
will only happen with such things as “optical” processors, or a
little theoretical thing known as the “quantum computer.”
Moore’s law is talked about a lot, it’s a
media darling, which means many have misapplied it and quoted it
inaccurately, this article included. People have tried to apply
Moore’s law to many things outside computing, from
warfare to the
overseas cost of human labor, with varying results. What people
don’t mention too often are the dark sides of Moore’s law and their
various consequences. Specifically, though, one thing that
negatively affects us about this famous idea is not how it drives
improvement, but how it drives humans to live up to it
It
should not be a shock that, almost in parallel, the amount of
potentially relevant information being pushed to and pulled from
human beings seems to have undergone similar exponential increase to
the technology that makes their circulation possible. I don’t know
if the amount of things being communicated is significantly greater,
but the variety of media and number of channels we are plugged into
effectively amplifies ALL of it.
The
web, cell phones, email, instant messaging, over 1000 cable
channels, satellite radio, and many other communication forms have
made it increasingly difficult for limited human brains to process
data adequately. Not only is there more noise, but a higher
percentage of the noise has become signal, hence difficult to
ignore. For example, how many of us have accidentally destroyed a
valuable email while deleting spam?
In
computers, it has been a difficult game to balance software
capability with processor performance. To date, the rule of thumb
has been that software fills all available capacity within one or
two release cycles, just before the next level of processing speed
is unveiled. The same happens to human information and
communication, it fills all available capacity, the major difference
being that human cognitive processing speed does not evolve in tune.
It’s like taking an Intel 386 processor and doubling the amount of
cables plugged into the box every 2 years.
This information over stimulus can create a type of attention
deficit disorder that makes work like product development extra
challenging. Harvard Business School professors Wheelwright and
Clark are oft cited for their research which determined that beyond
2 or 3 projects, a person’s ability to contribute to each project
diminishes substantially. This is a reflection of the situation of
“bad multitasking,” where too many parallel activities proliferate
defect opportunities — i.e. they make more mistakes possible, as
well as likely.
Wheelwright and Clark notwithstanding, two additional ideas are
needed to explain bad multitasking: 1) many more places and people
break the 2-3 project ceiling and work on too many things than do
not; and 2) information and data volumes have increased within
projects to make each individual project more of a burden. Moore’s
law strikes again in how aggressive evolution of technology creates
a necessary complexity within products that then create even more
meta-information that must be managed. Add to this the resource
crunch many companies face today, post-layoff era, and the problem
compounds itself yet again. We won’t even mention the amount of time
many folks spend in meetings or the additional complexities of
inter-company partnerships and outsourcing.
At
the front end of this article we mentioned how Moore’s Law has a
theoretical end date. Of course, people do not expect computing
power to freeze at that time, many even predict that we will find
ways to eke out even more performance from traditional silicon.
However, we must expect the same will happen with information --
that the problem will continue to get worse until some crisis forces
a solution or that people will reach their limit and ricochet the
other direction from the sheer tension of it all. Will there be a
crash or burst bubble of some sort? We should find out sometime in
the next 14 years.
Related HyperLinks:
Next Month from TCP:
We build on these ideas from Moore’s Law and enter the bizarro
world of Quantum Computers as a model for how companies and people
communicate and manage information.
HyperLinks:
Because
They Can
Link:
http://www.time.com/time/2003/inventions/
Since 2001, Time
Magazine has been running an annual feature on the respective year’s
“coolest inventions.” You may not agree that all of their selections are
truly “cool” (Nasal mist flu shot? Cialis?), but you’re sure to see
something in the collection that you couldn’t have possibly imagined
yourself (Fish-leather clothing; remote controlled smart ovens). You’ll
even see the most recent “world changing” device by Segway creator, Dean
Kamen.
If you’re a regular
reader, you’ve maybe noticed that we like to feature collections like
this in the newsletter. While they have little to no value in a
practical sense, they can be fun as a pseudo anthropological exercise. I
often wonder how the current epoch will be viewed when we become
prehistoric and future man has only vintage records such as these
through which to piece together a picture of 2004 reality.
Similar web reviews
from TCP:
Top Ten Signs
Your
New Boss Was a Reality TV Producer
From the MRT satellite office in
Los Angeles, CA
| 10. |
About halfway through the project, all
the people you laid off get reassigned to you |
9. |
You have to meet with him more than once
about excessive use of the phrase “you’re fired." |
8. |
Your phone receives a
text message that today’s office challenge is to work all day with
no caffeine |
| 7. |
Seems completely oblivious to the poor
quality of his hairpiece |
| 6. |
Instead of your immediate supervisor,
performance reviews now conducted by tart-tongued Brit |
| 5. |
Constantly emails you .mpeg files of
your colleague’s “confessionals” in the storeroom |
| 4. |
Instead of confronting you with problem
issues, decides to roam around naked until you quit |
| 3. |
Every week, he leads a meeting where you
vote one customer requirement off the spec sheet |
| 2. |
Says he’ll give an extra week’s vacation
to whoever eats the most runoff from the stereolithographer |
| ...and the number one sign
your new boss was a reality TV producer: |
| 1. |
Proclaims the major goals of the project
to be 1) score in the top percentile for customer satisfaction; 2)
reduce subassembly costs by 20%; and 3) find him the perfect bride |
Top
Ten List Archive
MRT NewsBriefs
It’s time once again for Goldense Group,
Inc.’s biennial research survey, the results of which are traditionally
reported first at MRT’s annual metrics conference. This year’s survey
will focus on the processes and relationships between the selection of
innovative new products and the intellectual property that is produced.
Participants will receive a free copy of the robust 40-50 page executive
summary after results are fully analyzed. Deadline for returning the
survey is July 1, 2004.
Click here for details.
- Call for Papers –
9th Annual Metrics Conference
MRT is currently accepting
abstracts and proposals for industry case presentations at our long
running conference series on product development and R&D metrics.
Deadline for submission is May 3, 2004.
Click here for details.
- Win
Tix to see the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park!
 Everyone who registers by May
17th for our upcoming August Executive Session, “Better, Faster
Innovation,” will be automatically entered in a drawing to win tickets
to see the Red Sox play at Fenway Park on the evening of August 10th,
the night before the workshop begins.
Click here for details.
- FREE
book offers from MRT
We’d like to help you
complete your summer reading list with some free books offered in
conjunction with some upcoming events. Here’s how to pick up these hot
topic tomes:
Calendar of Events
To inquire about exhibit and sponsorship opportunities at
MRT events, please contact Beth Schrager at schrager@rcn.com
or by phone at 978-263-9931.
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